Projected Effects of a Proposal to Count 90% of Earnings in Payroll Tax and
Benefit Calculations; Phase in 2021–2030

Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 13% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 10% 0% 0%
Male 0% 15% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 13% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 26% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 12% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 14% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 13% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 16% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 11% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 16% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 11% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 31% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 21% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 13% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 35% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 16% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 13% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 24% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 19% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 16% 0% 0%
Male 0% 21% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 11% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 20% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 13% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 33% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 18% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 20% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 15% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 19% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 21% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 23% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 21% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 17% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 20% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 13% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 38% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 32% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 10% 0% 0%
High school 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 19% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 49% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 24% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 13% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 18% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 19% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 27% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 10% 0% 0% $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 16% 0% 0% $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 11% 0% 0% $0 $0
50–59 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 20% 0% 0% $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 13% 0% 0% $0 $0
Associate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 33% 0% 0% $0 $0
Second highest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 38% 0% 0% $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 11% 0% 0% $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 19% 0% 0% $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 11% 0% 0% $0 $0
50–59 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 18% 0% 0% $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 14% 0% 0% $0 $0
Associate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 35% 0% 0% $0 $0
Second highest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 40% 0% 0% $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 11% 0% 0% $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 18% 0% 0% $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 10% 0% 0% $0 $0
50–59 0% 10% 0% 0% $0 $0
60–69 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 17% 0% 0% $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 14% 0% 0% $0 $0
Associate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 35% 0% 0% $0 $0
Second highest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 39% 0% 0% $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 16% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 10% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 18% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 12% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 18% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 16% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 14% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 13% 0% 0%
Male 0% 15% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 15% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 25% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 13% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 15% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 11% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 14% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 15% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 13% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 16% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 12% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 14% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 28% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 23% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 14% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 34% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 17% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 10% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 13% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 14% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 20% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,237 3,236 0 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,786 0 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,450 0 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 570 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,803 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 636 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 228 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,471 0 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 765 0 0%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,485 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,318 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 469 0 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,207 0 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 739 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 821 821 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 97 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 263 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 626 626 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,534 0 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 716 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0
In poverty 100% 100% 3,237 3,236 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,252 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 577 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 144 0 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,307 -1 0%
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,860 -1 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,447 0 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 897 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,470 -1 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 679 679 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 261 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 3% 2,260 2,259 -1 0%
Other countries 6% 6% 1,048 1,048 0 0%
Age
60–69 5% 5% 1,277 1,275 -1 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,105 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 734 734 0 0%
90 or older 3% 3% 193 193 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 457 0 0%
Divorced 6% 6% 948 946 -1 0%
Widowed 5% 5% 750 750 0 0%
Never married 12% 12% 1,154 1,154 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 280 280 0 0%
Associate 3% 3% 555 555 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,548 -1 0%
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 834 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0
In poverty 100% 100% 3,309 3,307 -1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,499 -1 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 498 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 99 99 0 0%
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 212 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,425 2,423 -1 0%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,304 1,302 -1 0%
Male 2% 2% 1,121 1,121 0 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 3% 769 769 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 1,008 -1 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 392 392 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 254 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,585 -1 0%
Other countries 4% 4% 839 839 0 0%
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 795 0 0%
70–79 3% 3% 906 906 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 585 583 -1 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 139 139 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 292 0 0%
Divorced 3% 3% 613 611 -1 0%
Widowed 3% 3% 473 473 0 0%
Never married 6% 6% 1,046 1,046 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 156 0 0%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 218 0 0%
Associate 2% 2% 405 405 0 0%
High school 4% 4% 1,033 1,031 -1 0%
Less than high school 6% 6% 613 613 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0
In poverty 100% 100% 2,425 2,423 -1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 1,957 -1 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 321 321 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 41 0 0%
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 105 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 3% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Male 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 3% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 15% 4% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 7% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 15% 1% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 15% 1% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 14% 5% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 11% 4% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 15% 1% -4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 12% 4% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 19% 5% -7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 11% 4% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 9% 4% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 29% 6% -8% 0% 0%
Bachelor 20% 6% -6% 0% 0%
Associate 6% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 47% 2% -11% 0% 0%
Second highest 4% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 47% 2% -11% 0% 0%
Second highest 5% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 42% 8% -10% 0% 0%
Second highest 9% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 11% 4% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 16% 1% -5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 13% 5% -3% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 25% 7% -10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 11% 4% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 12% 4% -4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 28% 7% -10% 0% 0%
Bachelor 24% 7% -8% 0% 0%
Associate 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 51% 2% -13% -1% 0%
Second highest 4% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 50% 2% -13% -1% 0%
Second highest 5% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 46% 8% -12% 0% 0%
Second highest 9% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 3% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Male 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race
White, non-Hispanic
Black or African American, non-Hispanic
All other races, non-Hispanic
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 3% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 9% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 6% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 12% 7% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 12% 7% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 11% 7% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile; — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 13% 2% -2% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 8% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Male 17% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 2% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 14% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 27% 4% -10% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 13% 2% -2% 0% 0%
Other countries 13% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 30% 5% -11% 0% 0%
Bachelor 23% 4% -7% 0% 0%
Associate 6% 2% 0% 0% 0%
High school 4% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 4% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 54% 4% -14% -1% 0%
Second highest 7% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 52% 5% -14% -1% 0%
Second highest 9% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 46% 6% -13% 0% 0%
Second highest 13% 4% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 3% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 14% 3% -3% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 9% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Male 18% 2% -5% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 2% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 15% 3% -3% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 33% 5% -14% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 13% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Other countries 18% 3% -6% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 31% 5% -13% 0% 0%
Bachelor 27% 5% -11% 0% 0%
Associate 7% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 5% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 4% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 59% 5% -17% -2% 0%
Second highest 7% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 1% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 57% 5% -17% -1% 0%
Second highest 9% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 1% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 51% 6% -17% -1% 0%
Second highest 13% 5% -2% 0% 0%
Middle 3% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.