Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase the Computation Period

Details: From 35 years to 40 years (does not apply to Disability Insurance)

Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 24% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 22% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Male 27% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 37% 0% -5% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 22% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 26% 0% -3% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 29% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 22% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Other countries 35% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 63% 0% -6% -1% 0%
70–79 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 28% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Divorced 24% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Widowed 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 33% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 20% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Bachelor 25% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Associate 24% 0% -3% 0% 0%
High school 24% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Less than high school 30% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 24% 0% -3% 0% 0%
In poverty 34% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 19% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second highest 24% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Middle 27% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Second lowest 25% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Lowest 26% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 31% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 19% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 70% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Sex
Female 66% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Male 74% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 74% 0% -8% -4% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -7% -3% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 76% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Country of birth
United States 68% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Other countries 75% 0% -9% -4% 0%
Age
60–69 71% 0% -8% -4% 0%
70–79 82% 0% -7% -3% 0%
80–89 73% 0% -6% -2% 0%
90 or older 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 77% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Divorced 67% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Widowed 47% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Never married 76% 0% -9% -4% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 72% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Bachelor 72% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Associate 70% 0% -7% -3% 0%
High school 66% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Less than high school 72% 0% -12% -4% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 70% 0% -7% -2% 0%
In poverty 73% 0% -12% -5% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 70% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Second highest 74% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Middle 72% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Second lowest 67% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Lowest 64% 0% -12% -4% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 81% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 29% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 76% 1% -8% -3% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 78% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Sex
Female 77% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Male 80% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 76% 0% -9% -4% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 79% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -8% -3% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 84% 0% -9% -4% 0%
Country of birth
United States 78% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Other countries 80% 0% -12% -5% 0%
Age
60–69 70% 0% -9% -4% 0%
70–79 80% 0% -8% -4% 0%
80–89 82% 0% -7% -3% 0%
90 or older 86% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Marital status
Married 82% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Divorced 72% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Widowed 72% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Never married 81% 0% -9% -4% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 83% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Bachelor 85% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Associate 77% 0% -7% -3% 0%
High school 73% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Less than high school 75% 0% -12% -5% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 78% 0% -7% -3% 0%
In poverty 82% 0% -12% -12% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 83% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Second highest 84% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Middle 80% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Second lowest 74% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Lowest 71% 0% -12% -5% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 88% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 50% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 81% 1% -8% -4% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 17% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 29% 0% -2% 0% 0%
70–79 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Divorced 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widowed 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 17% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 17% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 21% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 47% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 45% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Male 49% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 58% 0% -5% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 49% 0% -4% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 47% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Other countries 54% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 50% 0% -4% 0% 0%
70–79 58% 0% -4% -1% 0%
80–89 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
90 or older 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 54% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Divorced 44% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Widowed 29% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Never married 51% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 38% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Bachelor 42% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Associate 50% 0% -4% 0% 0%
High school 50% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Less than high school 58% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 47% 0% -3% 0% 0%
In poverty 55% 2% -11% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 40% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 61% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Second lowest 66% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Lowest 60% 1% -6% -2% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 54% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 21% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 55% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 56% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 56% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Male 56% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 61% 0% -5% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 54% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 55% 0% -5% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 54% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 55% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Other countries 60% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 51% 0% -4% -1% 0%
70–79 59% 0% -5% -1% 0%
80–89 58% 0% -4% -1% 0%
90 or older 53% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Marital status
Married 61% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Divorced 49% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Widowed 49% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Never married 57% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 49% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Bachelor 52% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Associate 59% 0% -4% -1% 0%
High school 59% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Less than high school 62% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 56% 0% -4% -1% 0%
In poverty 62% 3% -12% -5% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 51% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Middle 72% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Second lowest 76% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Lowest 69% 1% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 62% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 38% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 62% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,237 3,315
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,820
Male 4% 5% 1,450 1,494
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 574 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 1,804 1,859
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 642 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 240
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,529
Other countries 7% 7% 765 786
Age
60–69 6% 7% 1,486 1,560
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,321 0%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 486
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,239
Widowed 6% 6% 740 750
Never married 16% 17% 821 840
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 99
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 267
Associate 4% 4% 626 643
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,568
Less than high school 12% 13% 717 737
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 78
In poverty 100% 100% 3,237 3,237 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 5% 2,252 2,325
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 578 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 147
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,604
Sex
Female 4% 5% 1,862 1,999
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,605
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 980
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,587
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 9% 679 745
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 292
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,260 2,455
Other countries 6% 6% 1,048 1,149
Age
60–69 5% 6% 1,277 1,377
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,243
80–89 3% 4% 734 790
90 or older 3% 3% 193 193 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 508
Divorced 6% 7% 948 1,047
Widowed 5% 5% 750 807
Never married 12% 13% 1,154 1,243
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 95
Bachelor 2% 2% 280 325
Associate 3% 3% 555 628
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,680
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 875
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 314
In poverty 100% 99% 3,309 3,290 -18 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 5% 2,500 2,760
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 514
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 2% 99 118
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 212 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,425 2,805
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,304 1,513
Male 2% 3% 1,121 1,292
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 4% 769 910
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 1,168
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 5% 392 440
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 286
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,586 1,834
Other countries 4% 5% 839 971
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 922
70–79 3% 3% 906 1,033
80–89 3% 3% 585 676
90 or older 2% 2% 139 173
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 331
Divorced 3% 4% 613 705
Widowed 3% 4% 473 570
Never married 6% 7% 1,046 1,199
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 174
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 256
Associate 2% 2% 405 484
High school 4% 4% 1,033 1,192
Less than high school 6% 7% 613 698
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 394
In poverty 100% 99% 2,425 2,410 -14 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 2,283
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 321 372
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 45
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 105 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 57% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 54% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Male 60% 0% -5% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 61% 0% -7% -2% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 57% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 49% 0% -5% -1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 60% 0% -6% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 56% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Other countries 62% 0% -7% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 68% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Bachelor 66% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Associate 55% 0% -5% -1% 0%
High school 52% 0% -5% -1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 50% 0% -7% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 70% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Second highest 68% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Middle 59% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Second lowest 52% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Lowest 36% 0% -7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 69% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Second highest 67% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Middle 60% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Second lowest 53% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Lowest 36% 0% -8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 70% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Second highest 63% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Middle 59% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Second lowest 53% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Lowest 39% 0% -8% -1% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 66% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 66% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Male 65% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 62% 0% -9% -4% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 53% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -9% -4% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 68% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Other countries 60% 0% -12% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 79% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Bachelor 76% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Associate 65% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 0%
High school 58% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 55% 0% -12% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 88% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Second highest 79% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Middle 66% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Second lowest 58% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 36% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 89% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Second highest 78% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Middle 66% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Second lowest 60% 0% -9% -4% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 35% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 87% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Second highest 81% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Middle 67% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Second lowest 58% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Lowest 34% 0% -12% -5% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 66% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 67% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Male 65% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 62% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 56% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 68% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Other countries 61% 0% -10% -4% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 78% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Bachelor 77% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Associate 64% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 0%
High school 59% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 58% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 87% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Second highest 79% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Middle 67% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Second lowest 58% 0% -11% -4% 0%
Lowest 37% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 88% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Second highest 78% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Middle 67% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Second lowest 59% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Lowest 37% 0% -12% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 87% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Second highest 80% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Middle 67% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Second lowest 58% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Lowest 36% 0% -12% -6% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 2% 66% 0%
Sex
Female 2% 65% 0%
Male 2% 66% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 2% 64% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 68% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 2% 52% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 70% 0%
Country of birth
United States 2% 65% 0%
Other countries 2% 69% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 2% 83% 0%
Bachelor 2% 78% 0%
Associate 2% 63% 0%
High school 2% 58% 0%
Less than high school 1% 55% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 2% 87% 0%
Second highest 3% 70% 0%
Middle 3% 64% 0%
Second lowest 1% 68% 0%
Lowest 1% 39% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 3% 86% 0%
Second highest 3% 69% 0%
Middle 2% 66% 0%
Second lowest 2% 68% 0%
Lowest 1% 39% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 2% 87% 0%
Second highest 3% 72% 0%
Middle 2% 66% 0%
Second lowest 2% 62% 0%
Lowest 1% 41% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 4% 69% 0%
Sex
Female 4% 67% 0%
Male 4% 70% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 64% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 71% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 56% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 79% 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 69% 0%
Other countries 4% 65% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 5% 82% 0%
Bachelor 5% 79% 0%
Associate 4% 68% 0%
High school 3% 60% 0%
Less than high school 4% 55% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 5% 90%
Second highest 6% 79% 0%
Middle 4% 74% 0%
Second lowest 3% 68% 0%
Lowest 3% 32% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 5% 91%
Second highest 6% 78% 0%
Middle 4% 73% 0%
Second lowest 3% 67% 0%
Lowest 2% 34% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 5% 89% 0%
Second highest 5% 80% 0%
Middle 5% 74% 0%
Second lowest 3% 63% 0%
Lowest 2% 36% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 4% 68% 0%
Sex
Female 3% 68% 0%
Male 4% 69% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 66% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 71% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 55% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 76% 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 69% 0%
Other countries 4% 66% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 4% 81% 0%
Bachelor 4% 80% 0%
Associate 3% 65% 0%
High school 3% 61% 0%
Less than high school 3% 58% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 4% 91%
Second highest 5% 80% 0%
Middle 4% 73% 0%
Second lowest 3% 67% 0%
Lowest 2% 30% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 4% 91%
Second highest 5% 80% 0%
Middle 4% 71% 0%
Second lowest 3% 66% 0%
Lowest 2% 33% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 4% 90%
Second highest 5% 80% 0%
Middle 4% 73% 0%
Second lowest 3% 63% 0%
Lowest 2% 35% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.