Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase the Early Eligibility Age (EEA) and
Full Retirement Age (FRA)

Details: One month every 2 years starting in 2021 (EEA) and 2023 (FRA)

Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 47% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 46% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Male 48% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 49% 1% -6% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 46% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 45% 1% -5% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 56% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 46% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Other countries 53% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 52% 2% -8% -1% 0%
70–79 59% 0% -5% -2% 0%
80–89 42% 0% -2% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 51% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Divorced 47% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Widowed 36% 1% -4% 0% 0%
Never married 50% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 56% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Bachelor 52% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Associate 45% 1% -5% 0% 0%
High school 42% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Less than high school 47% 1% -6% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 48% 1% -5% 0% 0%
In poverty 41% 1% -6% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 56% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Second highest 51% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Middle 48% 1% -6% 0% 0%
Second lowest 41% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Lowest 40% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 53% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 30% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 50% 0% -7% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 62% 3% -11% -3% 0%
Sex
Female 63% 3% -11% -3% 0%
Male 60% 4% -11% -3% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 59% 3% -12% -2% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 62% 3% -11% -3% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 56% 3% -11% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 71% 2% -12% -4% 0%
Country of birth
United States 60% 4% -11% -3% 0%
Other countries 66% 3% -12% -4% 0%
Age
60–69 57% 3% -100% -3% 0%
70–79 64% 4% -10% -3% 0%
80–89 62% 3% -8% -3% 0%
90 or older 63% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Marital status
Married 62% 3% -12% -3% 0%
Divorced 60% 5% -11% -3% 0%
Widowed 60% 3% -8% -2% 0%
Never married 62% 3% -12% -3% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 70% 2% -11% -4% 0%
Bachelor 69% 3% -11% -4% 0%
Associate 57% 4% -11% -2% 0%
High school 56% 4% -11% -2% 0%
Less than high school 58% 4% -12% -2% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 61% 3% -11% -3% 0%
In poverty 71% 3% -13% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 72% 3% -11% -4% 0%
Second highest 66% 3% -11% -4% 0%
Middle 60% 4% -11% -3% 0%
Second lowest 56% 3% -11% -2% 0%
Lowest 55% 4% -11% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 67% 3% -12% -4% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 50% 7% -7% -1% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 64% 2% -14% -2% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 31% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Male 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 36% 0% -3% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 30% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 32% 0% -3% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 31% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 31% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Other countries 35% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 42% 1% -4% 0% 0%
70–79 43% 0% -2% 0% 0%
80–89 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 36% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Divorced 30% 1% -2% 0% 0%
Widowed 20% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Never married 34% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 28% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Bachelor 29% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Associate 34% 1% -2% 0% 0%
High school 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Less than high school 36% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
In poverty 30% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 39% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Lowest 36% 1% -4% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 35% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 19% 1% -2% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 53% 2% -7% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 53% 2% -6% -1% 0%
Male 52% 1% -7% -1% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 53% 2% -8% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 53% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 48% 2% -7% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 54% 1% -7% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 52% 2% -6% -1% 0%
Other countries 54% 1% -7% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 53% 1% -16% -1% 0%
70–79 55% 2% -6% -1% 0%
80–89 52% 1% -4% -1% 0%
90 or older 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 60% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Divorced 47% 3% -7% 0% 0%
Widowed 44% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Never married 48% 2% -8% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 52% 1% -5% -1% 0%
Bachelor 54% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Associate 53% 2% -7% -1% 0%
High school 53% 2% -7% -1% 0%
Less than high school 51% 2% -8% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 53% 1% -6% -1% 0%
In poverty 51% 3% -12% -1% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 36% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second highest 58% 1% -4% -1% 0%
Middle 61% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Second lowest 58% 2% -7% -2% 0%
Lowest 50% 4% -9% -1% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,237 3,249 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,786 -1 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,463 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 575 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,813 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 633 -3 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 228 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,475 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 774
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,495 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,321 0%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 476
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,207 0 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 746 0%
Never married 16% 16% 821 821 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 97 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 263 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 626 623 -3 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,542 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 724 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,259 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 582 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 145 0 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,656
Sex
Female 4% 5% 1,862 2,023
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,633
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 989
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,637
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 679 735
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 5% 261 295
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,260 2,525
Other countries 6% 6% 1,048 1,132
Age
60–69 5% 7% 1,277 1,560
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,159
80–89 3% 3% 734 744
90 or older 3% 3% 193 193 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 553
Divorced 6% 7% 948 1,085
Widowed 5% 5% 750 791
Never married 12% 12% 1,154 1,228
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 118
Bachelor 2% 2% 280 323
Associate 3% 3% 555 652
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,691
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 872
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 363
In poverty 100% 100% 3,309 3,293 -15 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 5% 2,500 2,772
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 554
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 2% 99 116
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 213 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 4% 2,425 3,421
Sex
Female 3% 4% 1,304 1,774
Male 2% 4% 1,121 1,647
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 5% 769 1,125
White, non-Hispanic 2% 3% 1,009 1,484
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 5% 392 499
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 312
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,586 2,340
Other countries 4% 5% 839 1,081
Age
60–69 3% 6% 795 1,667
70–79 3% 3% 906 985
80–89 3% 3% 585 618
90 or older 2% 2% 139 151
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 514
Divorced 3% 5% 613 961
Widowed 3% 4% 473 603
Never married 6% 8% 1,046 1,342
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 259
Bachelor 1% 2% 218 323
Associate 2% 3% 405 609
High school 4% 5% 1,033 1,439
Less than high school 6% 8% 613 791
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0 1,013
In poverty 100% 99% 2,425 2,408 -17 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 4% 1,958 2,782
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 4% 321 463
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 67
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 109
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 26% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Male 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 26% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 26% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 23% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 30% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 28% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 39% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Bachelor 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Associate 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 19% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 44% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second highest 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 22% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 17% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 17% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 46% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second highest 28% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 23% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 14% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 46% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second highest 27% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 22% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 13% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 66% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 68% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Male 64% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 61% 0% -9% -5% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -8% -5% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 53% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -9% -6% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 68% 0% -8% -5% 0%
Other countries 59% 0% -9% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 79% 0% -8% -5% 0%
Bachelor 76% 0% -8% -5% 0%
Associate 65% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 0%
High school 59% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 54% 1% -9% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 89% 0% -8% -6% 0%
Second highest 76% 0% -8% -5% 0%
Middle 65% 0% -8% -5% 0%
Second lowest 58% 0% -9% -4% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 40% 1% -9% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 90% 0% -8% -6% -2%
Second highest 75% 0% -8% -5% 0%
Middle 66% 0% -8% -5% 0%
Second lowest 59% 0% -9% -4% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 38% 1% -9% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 90% 0% -8% -6% -1%
Second highest 79% 0% -8% -5% 0%
Middle 67% 0% -8% -5% 0%
Second lowest 59% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0%
Lowest 34% 1% -10% -4% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 70% 0% -14% -9% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 73% 0% -14% -9% 0% 0% 0%
Male 68% 0% -14% -9% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 67% 0% -14% -9% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -14% -9% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 59% 0% -14% -8% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -14% -10% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 72% 0% -14% -9% 0%
Other countries 65% 0% -14% -10% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 83% 0% -14% -10% 0%
Bachelor 81% 0% -14% -10% 0%
Associate 67% 0% -14% -8% 0% 0% 0%
High school 64% 0% -14% -8% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 63% 0% -16% -9% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -13% -10% -3%
Second highest 81% 0% -13% -10% 0%
Middle 70% 0% -14% -8% 0%
Second lowest 64% 0% -14% -7% 0%
Lowest 45% 1% -16% -7% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 94% 0% -13% -10% -4%
Second highest 80% 0% -14% -10% 0%
Middle 70% 0% -14% -8% 0%
Second lowest 65% 0% -14% -7% 0%
Lowest 44% 1% -16% -7% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 93% 0% -13% -10% -3%
Second highest 83% 0% -13% -9% 0%
Middle 72% 0% -14% -8% 0%
Second lowest 64% 1% -14% -7% 0%
Lowest 40% 1% -17% -7% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 45% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 45% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Male 44% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 42% 0% -5% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 45% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 38% 0% -4% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 56% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 43% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Other countries 52% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 67% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Bachelor 57% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Associate 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
High school 36% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Less than high school 32% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 65% 0% -4% -2% 0%
Second highest 51% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Middle 44% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Second lowest 36% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Lowest 26% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 69% 0% -4% -2% 0%
Second highest 51% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Middle 44% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Second lowest 36% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Lowest 24% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 69% 0% -4% -2% 0%
Second highest 49% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Middle 43% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Second lowest 36% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Lowest 26% 0% -4% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 54% 10% -27% -5% 0%
Sex
Female 55% 10% -31% -5% 0%
Male 54% 10% -25% -5% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 50% 11% -18% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 56% 9% -31% -6% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 45% 8% -20% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 68% 9% -85% -9% 0%
Country of birth
United States 54% 10% -27% -5% 0%
Other countries 57% 10% -28% -6% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 71% 8% -100% -9% 0% 0%
Bachelor 66% 9% -63% -9% 0%
Associate 51% 10% -18% -1% 0%
High school 46% 10% -14% 0% 0%
Less than high school 41% 13% -15% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 71% 12% -100% -9% 0%
Second highest 60% 6% -33% -7% 0%
Middle 54% 7% -18% -5% 0%
Second lowest 47% 15% -16% 0%
Lowest 40% 8% -17% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 75% 11% -100% -10% 0%
Second highest 59% 7% -31% -7% 0%
Middle 53% 7% -18% -3% 0%
Second lowest 45% 14% -16% 0%
Lowest 39% 10% -15% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 74% 10% -100% -10% 0%
Second highest 60% 9% -31% -7% 0%
Middle 53% 9% -18% -3% 0%
Second lowest 44% 11% -16% 0%
Lowest 41% 8% -15% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 53% 15% -66% -5%
Sex
Female 54% 15% -78% -7%
Male 53% 16% -58% -4%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 49% 17% -34% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 55% 15% -79% -8%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 46% 12% -44% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 68% 13% -100% -17% 0%
Country of birth
United States 52% 16% -59% -3%
Other countries 59% 13% -86% -13%
Highest education level
Graduate 69% 13% -100% -18% 0%
Bachelor 66% 15% -100% -16% 0%
Associate 47% 16% -32% 0%
High school 46% 15% -28% 0%
Less than high school 44% 18% -25% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 69% 20% -100% -17% 0%
Second highest 61% 12% -66% -14%
Middle 52% 15% -37% -3%
Second lowest 44% 19% -30% 0%
Lowest 40% 11% -24% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 74% 17% -100% -18% 0%
Second highest 61% 13% -64% -14%
Middle 50% 14% -37% -1%
Second lowest 44% 19% -26% 0%
Lowest 39% 13% -22% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 72% 17% -100% -18% 0%
Second highest 60% 16% -66% -14%
Middle 51% 15% -36% -2%
Second lowest 43% 17% -26% 0%
Lowest 41% 11% -23% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.