Projected Effects of a Proposal to Price Index the Primary Insurance Amount (PIA)
Formula for Earners Above the 30th Percentile

Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 54% 0% -16% -2% 0%
Sex
Female 48% 0% -14% 0% 0%
Male 60% 0% -18% -3% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 47% 0% -13% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 57% 0% -17% -2% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 49% 0% -15% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 55% 0% -18% -2% 0%
Country of birth
United States 56% 0% -17% -2% 0%
Other countries 46% 0% -14% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 63% 0% -21% -6% 0%
70–79 71% 0% -15% -6% 0%
80–89 38% 0% -6% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 61% 0% -17% -3% 0%
Divorced 55% 0% -16% -2% 0%
Widowed 35% 0% -9% 0% 0%
Never married 51% 0% -17% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 67% 0% -20% -7% 0%
Bachelor 62% 0% -18% -4% 0%
Associate 57% 0% -15% -2% 0%
High school 45% 0% -12% 0% 0%
Less than high school 36% 0% -11% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 56% 0% -16% -2% 0%
In poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 68% 0% -20% -8% 0%
Second highest 67% 0% -18% -6% 0%
Middle 62% 0% -15% -3% 0%
Second lowest 50% 0% -11% 0% 0%
Lowest 23% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 57% 0% -17% -2% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 34% 0% -10% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 63% 0% -17% -4% 0%
Disabled worker only 53% 0% -18% -1% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 73% 0% -31% -12% 0%
Sex
Female 69% 0% -29% -10% 0%
Male 76% 0% -32% -15% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 60% 0% -27% -6% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -31% -15% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 63% 0% -28% -7% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -34% -15% 0%
Country of birth
United States 76% 0% -31% -13% 0%
Other countries 59% 0% -30% -6% 0%
Age
60–69 65% 0% -36% -11% 0%
70–79 72% 0% -31% -14% 0%
80–89 79% 0% -25% -14% 0%
90 or older 82% 0% -17% -9% 0%
Marital status
Married 75% 0% -32% -14% 0%
Divorced 75% 0% -31% -13% 0%
Widowed 73% 0% -25% -10% 0%
Never married 62% 0% -30% -7% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 87% 0% -34% -21% 0%
Bachelor 84% 0% -34% -19% 0%
Associate 75% 0% -28% -11% 0%
High school 63% 0% -26% -7% 0%
Less than high school 47% 0% -23% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 74% 0% -31% -13% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 92% 0% -36% -25% -3%
Second highest 87% 0% -32% -19% 0%
Middle 82% 0% -29% -14% 0%
Second lowest 71% 0% -22% -9% 0%
Lowest 32% 0% -9% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 73% 0% -31% -13% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 73% 0% -26% -10% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 76% 0% -30% -12% 0%
Disabled worker only 58% 0% -29% -6% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 49% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 45% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Male 54% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 42% 0% -5% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 52% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 45% 0% -6% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 49% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 52% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Other countries 41% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 62% 0% -8% -2% 0%
70–79 67% 0% -6% -2% 0%
80–89 27% 0% -2% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 58% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Divorced 48% 0% -7% 0% 0%
Widowed 29% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Never married 44% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 60% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Bachelor 57% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Associate 54% 0% -6% -1% 0%
High school 41% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Less than high school 32% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 51% 0% -6% -1% 0%
In poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 54% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Second highest 61% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Middle 60% 0% -8% -1% 0%
Second lowest 50% 0% -8% -1% 0%
Lowest 22% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 52% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 30% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 58% 0% -7% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 50% 0% -8% -1% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 72% 0% -13% -4% 0%
Sex
Female 70% 0% -13% -4% 0%
Male 74% 0% -14% -4% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 61% 0% -13% -3% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -13% -5% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 62% 0% -14% -3% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -13% -4% 0%
Country of birth
United States 76% 0% -13% -5% 0%
Other countries 58% 0% -12% -2% 0%
Age
60–69 65% 0% -15% -4% 0%
70–79 73% 0% -14% -5% 0%
80–89 79% 0% -12% -4% 0%
90 or older 75% 0% -8% -2% 0%
Marital status
Married 78% 0% -13% -5% 0%
Divorced 73% 0% -15% -4% 0%
Widowed 69% 0% -12% -3% 0%
Never married 59% 0% -12% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 86% 0% -14% -5% 0%
Bachelor 83% 0% -13% -5% 0%
Associate 75% 0% -14% -4% 0%
High school 64% 0% -13% -3% 0%
Less than high school 46% 0% -12% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 74% 0% -13% -4% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 86% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Second highest 85% 0% -12% -6% 0%
Middle 83% 0% -17% -7% 0%
Second lowest 75% 0% -18% -6% 0%
Lowest 31% 0% -8% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 73% 0% -13% -4% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 70% 0% -15% -4% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 74% 0% -16% -6% 0%
Disabled worker only 58% 0% -15% -2% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,237 3,240 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,790 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,450 0 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 570 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,806 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 636 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 228 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,475 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 765 0 0%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,488 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,318 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 469 0 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,209 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 740 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 821 821 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 97 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 263 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 626 626 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,537 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 717 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,252 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 577 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 147
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,343
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,883
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,460 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 902 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,487
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 679 692
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 263 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,260 2,291
Other countries 6% 6% 1,048 1,052 0%
Age
60–69 5% 5% 1,277 1,287 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,118
80–89 3% 3% 734 743
90 or older 3% 3% 193 194 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 460 0%
Divorced 6% 6% 948 979
Widowed 5% 5% 750 750 0 0%
Never married 12% 12% 1,154 1,154 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 280 293
Associate 3% 3% 555 562
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,561 0%
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 835 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 34
In poverty 100% 100% 3,309 3,309 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,506 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 498 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 2% 99 127
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 212 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,425 2,434 0%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,304 1,312 0%
Male 2% 2% 1,121 1,121 0 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 3% 769 773 0%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 1,012 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 392 394 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 254 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,594 0%
Other countries 4% 4% 839 839 0 0%
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 795 0 0%
70–79 3% 3% 906 913 0%
80–89 3% 3% 585 587 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 139 139 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 292 0 0%
Divorced 3% 3% 613 622
Widowed 3% 3% 473 473 0 0%
Never married 6% 6% 1,046 1,046 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 156 0 0%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 218 0 0%
Associate 2% 2% 405 408 0%
High school 4% 4% 1,033 1,039 0%
Less than high school 6% 6% 613 613 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 1,958 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 321 321 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 49
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 105 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 19% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 17% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Male 22% 0% -4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 15% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 21% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 14% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 20% 0% -4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 20% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Other countries 16% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 33% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Bachelor 29% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Associate 19% 0% -3% 0% 0%
High school 14% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 45% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Second highest 29% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Middle 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 44% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Second highest 29% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Middle 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 47% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Second highest 27% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Middle 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 61% 0% -23% -8% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 59% 0% -22% -6% 0% 0% 0%
Male 62% 0% -24% -10% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 46% 0% -19% -2% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 71% 0% -23% -11% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 45% 0% -21% -2% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 55% 0% -25% -11% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 67% 0% -23% -10% 0%
Other countries 42% 0% -22% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 82% 0% -26% -19% 0%
Bachelor 76% 0% -25% -16% 0%
Associate 64% 0% -20% -7% 0% 0% 0%
High school 51% 0% -19% -3% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 33% 0% -16% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 99% 0% -26% -22% -18%
Second highest 96% 0% -18% -13% -7%
Middle 63% 0% -10% -3% 0%
Second lowest 24% 0% -12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 21% 0% -15% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 99% 0% -26% -22% -18%
Second highest 97% 0% -18% -13% -7%
Middle 68% 0% -9% -3% 0%
Second lowest 23% 0% -12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 17% 0% -14% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 99% 0% -26% -22% -16%
Second highest 96% 0% -20% -14% -6%
Middle 77% 0% -14% -5% 0%
Second lowest 27% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 63% 0% -37% -14% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 62% 0% -36% -12% 0% 0% 0%
Male 63% 0% -38% -17% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 53% 0% -33% -8% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -38% -19% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 50% 0% -34% -5% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 62% 0% -41% -24% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 68% 0% -37% -16% 0%
Other countries 47% 0% -38% -8% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 82% 0% -41% -30% 0%
Bachelor 78% 0% -40% -29% 0%
Associate 66% 0% -34% -13% 0% 0% 0%
High school 54% 0% -31% -7% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 37% 0% -27% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 99% 0% -42% -36% -31%
Second highest 96% 0% -30% -21% -12%
Middle 66% 0% -19% -5% 0%
Second lowest 29% 0% -17% 0% 0%
Lowest 24% 0% -27% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 99% 0% -42% -37% -31%
Second highest 97% 0% -30% -22% -13%
Middle 72% 0% -17% -7% 0%
Second lowest 26% 0% -16% 0% 0%
Lowest 20% 0% -25% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 100% 0% -42% -36% -28%
Second highest 97% 0% -34% -24% -12%
Middle 80% 0% -25% -10% 0%
Second lowest 33% 0% -12% 0% 0%
Lowest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 19% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 16% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Male 23% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 14% 0% -2% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 21% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 21% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 20% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Other countries 17% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 33% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Bachelor 28% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Associate 18% 0% -2% 0% 0%
High school 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 47% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Second highest 33% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Middle 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 46% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Second highest 32% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Middle 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 46% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Second highest 27% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Middle 17% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 65% 0% -25% -7% 0%
Sex
Female 59% 0% -23% -4% 0%
Male 70% 0% -26% -10% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 51% 0% -21% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 71% 0% -26% -11% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 52% 0% -23% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 69% 0% -28% -12% 0%
Country of birth
United States 68% 0% -25% -8% 0%
Other countries 52% 0% -24% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 85% 0% -28% -19% 0%
Bachelor 80% 0% -28% -16% 0%
Associate 66% 0% -23% -6% 0%
High school 53% 0% -20% -1% 0%
Less than high school 38% 0% -17% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 100% 0% -39% -23% -19%
Second highest 100% 0% -26% -16% -11%
Middle 89% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Second lowest 23% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 100% 0% -43% -23% -19%
Second highest 100% 0% -26% -16% -10%
Middle 88% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Second lowest 24% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 99% 0% -36% -23% -17%
Second highest 94% 0% -27% -16% -5%
Middle 82% 0% -18% -8% 0%
Second lowest 43% 0% -8% 0% 0%
Lowest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 65% 0% -40% -12% 0%
Sex
Female 59% 0% -37% -8% 0%
Male 71% 0% -41% -17% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 56% 0% -35% -5% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -41% -18% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 53% 0% -36% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -43% -24% 0%
Country of birth
United States 68% 0% -40% -14% 0%
Other countries 56% 0% -40% -6% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 84% 0% -44% -30% 0%
Bachelor 82% 0% -45% -30% 0%
Associate 66% 0% -36% -10% 0%
High school 55% 0% -33% -4% 0%
Less than high school 40% 0% -29% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 100% 0% -67% -38% -33%
Second highest 100% 0% -38% -26% -17%
Middle 89% 0% -21% -10% 0%
Second lowest 24% 0% -8% 0% 0%
Lowest 14% 0% -7% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 100% 0% -68% -38% -33%
Second highest 100% 0% -38% -26% -17%
Middle 89% 0% -20% -10% 0%
Second lowest 26% 0% -7% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 99% 0% -66% -37% -28%
Second highest 95% 0% -41% -27% -9%
Middle 83% 0% -29% -13% 0%
Second lowest 42% 0% -15% 0% 0%
Lowest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v4
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.